2023 IndyCar Series season preview: Part 2

Last week, Twin Checkers started the 2023 IndyCar Series season preview, including the drivers from A.J. Foyt, Andretti, Arrow McLaren, Chip Ganassi and Dale Coyne.

IndyCar is so competitive that it can be true that every team has a reason for optimism, and most of them will completely whiff at that pitch by the halfway point of the season.

Part 1 included a dissection of Andretti and McLaren, teams with legitimate reasons for optimism. In reality, only one of them will likely take a step up, while the other will stay put or regress. Part 2 is filled with the same dillema: teams with plenty of reasons they should be better, but need to capitalize or they'll be bitterly disappointed by season's end — or sooner.

Championship odds from Bovada Sportsbook.
New to sportsbook odds? +1000 is equal to a 1-in-10 chance to win, sometimes stated as "10-to-1."

(R) denotes Rookies.

Dreyer & Reinbold Racing

Driver: No. 24 Stefan Wilson (Indy 500 only: +5000)

Perennial Indianapolis 500 entrants Dreyer & Reinbold have teamed up with Don Cusick and driver Stefan Wilson to enter one car in this year's '500. Though the team could enter another car nothing is confirmed yet.

Wilson has done well in his Indy 500 attempts, and came just four laps short of winning the 2018 race on a fuel milage gamble with Andretti Autosport. Last year he finished 26th with DragonSpeed. Dreyer & Reinbold have put a car in the top ten at Indianapolis two years in a row.

Ed Carpenter Racing

Drivers: No. 20 Conor Daly (+10000), No. 21 Rinus VeeKay (+3000), No. 33 Ed Carpenter (Indy 500: +2800)

The Ed Carpenter Racing team is looking to take a big step forward in 2023. Conor Daly returns for his second full time season with the team, and will need to build consistent success to achieve a better championship standing in 2023. Daly has put on fantastic shows at Indianapolis the last two years, leading the most laps in the '500 in 2021 and again leading laps in 2022. Winning Indianapolis is a prize in itself, but to finish better than 17th in the driver's standings Daly will need to score more than two top ten finishes in 2023.

Rinus VeeKay had more bad luck than nearly anyone else in 2022. When the car is cooperating, VeeKay has podium-level speed. Last year his only podium came at the Grand Prix of Alabama, where he was leading late before tire wear caught up to him and he fell to third. Six top tens should have been seven, but an accident in the first quarter of the Indianapolis 500 meant he finished 33rd and in last. VeeKay could be a darkhorse pick for multiple race wins this year, but only if his equipment can support his talent.

Owner Ed Carpenter will again run the ovals in the IndyCar Series. In the last decade Carpenter has started in the top five at Indianapolis seven times, including three times from pole position. His best finish though is second, achieved in 2018. Ed can still throw down some heaters in qualifying, and if he runs the perfect race he could be in contention this Memorial Day weekend. As for outside Indianapolis, his recent results have been uninspiring. Since a photo-finish second place at Gateway in 2019, Carpenter has finished in the top five just twice.

Juncos Hollinger Racing

Drivers: No. 77 Callum Ilott (+25000), No. 78 Agustín Canapino (R) (no odds listed)

Juncos underwent incredible changes this offseason, expanding to a second car and completely rebranding the team's image with new logos and colors.

Callum Ilott will look to take the No. 77 car to new heights in 2023, his sophomore campaign. Despite missing the Detroit round last season due to injury, the rookie impressed often, by the end of the season acquiring two top tens with a shot at more if not for some rookie mistakes. Ilott can aim for a top fifteen in the championship this season, and don't be shocked to see him on the podium a few times by season's end.

Agustín Canapino is one of the most interesting rookie drivers in recent IndyCar Series history. Canapino is a relative unknown to U.S. motorsports fans, but he's well-supported in his home of Argentina. Canapino won sportsman of the year in Argentina in 2018, the same award Lionel Messi won the last two years. Even more, he outperformed expectations in preseason testing, appearing on pace and matching his peers in this year's rookie class. Canapino is a four-time champion in Argentinan stock cars, and his adaptation to the different open wheel cars seems to be going swimmingly.

It's yet to be seen what improvements Juncos has made on the oval side this year, but for road and street courses this team is a good bet to surprise on multiple weekends this season, maybe as soon as St. Petersburg.

Meyer Shank Racing

Drivers: No. 06 Hélio Castroneves (+6600), No. 60 Simon Pagenaud (+4000)

Meyer Shank Racing feels like a team still riding the high being the car Hélio won his fourth Indianapolis 500 in. Last season the team felt like it was missing at times, and dramatically underperformed for a team expected to finally break through. This could be a make or break year for MSR and its stable of drivers, and a rebuild might be necessary if this year ends up the same as last.

Also of note, MSR shares a technical alliance with Andretti. Last year's woes could be tied to an Andretti regression. If the predicted Andretti rise happens, MSR should compete at a higher level as well.

Castroneves returns to the 06 car for what could be one of his last full time campaigns in IndyCar. Last season was underwhelming by many measures, including only three top tens and season-best 7th at Indianapolis. Castroneves doesn't want to go out like that, even if his fourth '500 is more than enough to carry him off into the sunset. Ultimately, his success will be determined by his equipment more than his ability. Castroneves can still have fantastic races, but can his cars? Ultimately, the drive for five will dominate storylines, but Castroneves can perform better than he did last year across the board.

Pagenaud was perhaps the more disappointing story from MSR last year. Despite scoring the team's only top five with a second place at the Indy Grand Prix, Pagenaud was expected to lead the way for the the team and even grab a victory or two along the way. He did lead the way, but that was only to 12th in the standings. Pagenaud can go on hot-n-cold streaks, and many credit his 2019 sweep of the Indy GP, Indy 500 pole and Indy 500 victory as the reason he was retained at Penske through 2021 — a seat he likely would have left after the 2019 season otherwise. It's time for a hot streak from Pagenaud, and MSR is hoping one can break them out of their funk.

Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing

Drivers: No. 15 Graham Rahal (+5000), No. 30 Jack Harvey (+15000), No. 44 Katherine Legge (Indy 500 only), No. 45 Christian Lundgaard (+5000)

Ganassi, in hindsight, might've been the only bright spot for Honda organizations last year. The Rahal team has big aspirations, moving into a shiny new complex in the Indianapolis suburbs in the last year and growing to now three full time entries and an Indy 500 one off. Rahal even gets the benefit of HyVee, the miracle IndyCar sponsor who seemed to single-handedly save the Iowa Speedway and sponsors the 45 car.

Unfortunately, the team missed expectations dramatically last season. Christian Lundgaard scored the team's best finish with a second place at the July Indy Road Course event, and Santino Ferrucci tied Jack Harvey for top ten finishes in the No. 45 car despite filling in for the injured Harvey in only one race at Texas. Rahal needs to kick it up a notch this year, and testing wasn't necessarily promising.

Graham Rahal returns to the No. 15 this season. He only scored two top fives in 2022, and should be scoring more. Rahal has been notable for poor qualifying performances overcome in the races, but last year felt like the qualifying finally caught up to him. Better qualifying, and hence better and safer positioning in races, is key to Rahal pushing into the championship top ten again.

Harvey and Lundgaard swapped cars this offseason, Harvey now driving the No. 30 and Lundgaard to the aforementioned No. 45. Lundgaard was rookie of the year in the series last year, driving to a 14th in the championship. His sophomore season will be telling, and sponsor HyVee will be looking for more results from the No. 45 car they spend so much money promoting. Harvey moves to the No. 30 hoping to get a fresh start on the same team. His first season with Rahal after moving from MSR was poor, and he finished only three points ahead of Devlin DeFrancesco to take 22nd — the last position that qualifies for the lucrative Leader's Circle funding.

Multiple top tens would be a marked improvement for Harvey, who once seemed on the cusp of winning his first IndyCar races at MSR. Lundgaard can also take a step forward with multiple podiums and pushing into the championship top ten.

Katherine Legge joins Rahal for the Indianapolis 500 in a welcome addition to the grid. Legge last ran the Indy 500 ten years ago, and should have been a contender for a full time seat at the time. Unfortunately, IndyCar's third engine manufacturer Lotus was so poor Legge and other Lotus drivers only ran until Indianapolis with the engines before contracts where terminated, and she was squeezed out of a full time ride. Legge is fast, and it will be exciting to see her get up to speed this May.

Team Penske

Drivers: No. 2 Josef Newgarden (+400), No. 3 Scott McLaughlin (+800), No. 12 Will Power (+450)

What more can you say about the legendary Team Penske organization? They became the first to win both an IndyCar and NASCAR championship last season, and there's a solid chance they do it again this year.

Josef Newgarden finished runner-up last year (and the two years prior), Power won the championship, and Scott McLaughlin has some of the highest potential in the IndyCar paddock.

Bovada puts Newgarden as the championship favorite, followed by Power, McLaren's Pato O'Ward, and puts McLaughlin and Andretti's Colton Herta at equal odds for fourth best. This could very well be a year where Penske locks out the top three in the championship. That however would require absolute Penske perfection — and that's probably not likely in this series.

Newgarden has such a low floor. He finished outside the top ten only four times last year, including the second race at Iowa where a suspension component broke while he was leading and prepped to sweep the weekend. Ultimately, the suspension failure probably lost Newgarden the championship last year. He'll be looking to push even higher up the grid wherever he can, looking to build on his five wins and 12 top tens.

Power was one step better than Newgarden at the end of it all, breaking Mario Andretti's pole record in the final race of the year and securing his 12th top five finish of the year to lock up the title at Laguna Seca. Power talked a lot about his new calm and centered mindset last year, and it paid off immediately. If he's even better: watch out.

McLaughlin rounded out the Penske trio with a fourth in the championship last year, and only 11 points off a Penske 1-2-3. He won the season-opener at St. Petersburg and finished second to Newgarden in the second race at Texas in dramatic fashion last season. McLaughlin needs to start the season just as well or even better this year, but could be in for a legendary ride — if he can beat his teammates.