Preview: Will Power is the favorite for the 2022 IndyCar Championship. Can he close it out?

After another podium finish at last weekend's Grand Prix of Portland, Team Penske's Will Power is the championship favorite, and has the easiest path to his NTT IndyCar Series Championship this Sunday at the Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey in Laguna Seca, California.

In fact, he can lock up the title with a podium finish, ignoring how the other four title contenders fare in the race. Power will have to earn his second crown on the track, though, and his competition is stiff.

Power comes into Laguna Seca with a 20 point lead over six-time champion Scott Dixon and his Team Penske teammate Josef Newgarden. Power's second-place finish in Portland increased his championship lead, and he is guaranteed a championship if he finishes in the top three places on Sunday.

Newgarden and Dixon need a variety of things to happen for them to win, but they have much more favorable scenarios than Marcus Ericsson and Scott McLaughlin. Both are still mathematically eligible but, at 39 and 41 points back, respectively, need a complex series of misfortunes to befall the top three in the championship.

The Indianapolis Star's Nathan Brown outlined all of the championship scenarios for the top five this week, but the scenarios for the rest of the top four can be oversimplified to the following:

• For Dixon, he needs to finish ahead of Newgarden, and hope Power finishes as poorly as possible, ideally outside the top five at worst
• For Newgarden, the same, and he needs to finish ahead of Dixon
  • Both drivers effectively need a podium AND Power to finish 15th or worse
• For Ericsson, he needs a win, AND, assuming no bonus points for pole or most laps lead, needs Dixon and Newgarden to finish outside the top three AND Power to finish 18th or worse
• For McLaughlin, he needs a win, AND, assuming no bonus points for pole or most laps lead, needs Dixon and Newgarden to finish outside the top three AND Power to finish 18th or worse

Bonus points for pole, leading a lap and leading the most laps add 1-2 points each and shift clinch scenarios.

There are a variety of scenarios where what's outlined above doesn't happen, and there are at least four paths to a championship for every driver, including Ericsson and McLaughlin. Every driver will try to do what they do every weekend, though — score as many points as possible. If they focus too much on what other contenders are doing, they'll lose focus on their own race and could suffer.

In last year's Firestone Grand Prix of Monterey, Power finished 26th following an engine issue. Dixon finished 13th, and Newgarden finished a respectable 7th.

The event was skipped in 2020 due to COVID-19 concerns. In 2019, Power finished second and Dixon finished third. Newgarden finished 8th that year, but had pretty locked up the championship at that point and had no need to risk a podium finish for a title.

Laguna Seca is a track that favors good qualifying and equipment management. Power has been great at both all year, with four pole positions and 11 top five finishes.

The "Tom Brady of IndyCar" Dixon seems to have an advantage over Newgarden this weekend if only due to experience — Dixon has four more championships, and has one podium since IndyCar's return to the track in 2019 — Newgarden has none.

There's nothing else on the IndyCar schedule that quite matches Laguna Seca's old, tire-eating pavement and its breathtaking elevation changes. The closest match could be Barber Motorsports Park in Alabama, where this year Power led all title contenders with a fourth place finish, followed by Dixon in fifth, McLaughlin in sixth, Ericsson in 12th and Newgarden in 14th with two laps led.

The entire season (graphed above) will come down to one of the most iconic road courses in America. Laguna Seca's jaw dropping "corkscrew" was the site of 1996 CART championship, which saw Alex Zanardi dive bomb past Brian Herta, father of Colton Herta, on the last corner to take the season championship (below).

Could we see something just as exciting on Sunday? There's a couple scenarios where we do. If Will Power suffers early issues, he could lunge past someone midfield to take the title a-la Lewis Hamilton Brazil 2008.

If Power has mechanical issues, Dixon could need to get past Newgarden for the title, and vice versa. If all three crash out in turn one, Ericsson and McLaughlin suddenly have a legitimate chance and need to best the other.

It's all what ifs until Sunday, though.

Will Power has the easiest path to the championship, but the twists and turns at Laguna Seca could shake the title into someone else's hands by the checkered flag.