Mid-season report: Can Palou be caught? Opportunities exist over final 8 races.
Can anyone catch Alex Palou? That could depend on whether or not Palou does well on the schedule's remaining short ovals, tracks where he could be vulnerable to the rest of the #IndyCar field.
Twin Checkers is back (everyone should take a break in the summer, it's nice!).
In that time, IndyCar races at Road America and Mid-Ohio have solidified a 110 point lead for Chip Ganassi Racing's Alex Palou in the championship standings. We're in the midst of a 4-out-of-5 win streak for the Barcelona native, the only blemish being the Indianapolis 500 — a race he started from pole and led significant laps in.
Considering last year's contract drama and the unspoken assumption Palou will leave for Arrow McLaren next year (or an F1 seat, should the stars align), his performance in what could have been — and still could be — a lame duck year at CGR has been quite surprising.
He hasn't finished worse than 8th this year, and that was in the season opening race at St. Petersburg. With eight straight top fives, four wins and a 110 point advantage over teammate Scott Dixon, Palou might end his Chip Ganassi tenure with the best season in modern IndyCar history.
Quite simply, Palou seems untouchable. The IndyCar Ratings Index says Palou is on track record the best IndyCar season since at earliest 2012, and that's only because I haven't run the numbers yet.
Can he be caught? It's possible, but it will be difficult if he keeps up his streak of top five finishes.
Championship Breakdown
If there's an achilles heel to Palou, it will come to notice during the Iowa weekend.
The double-header Iowa oval weekend July 22-23 hasn't been as kind to Palou as other tracks. His average finish is 11th, including last year when he finished 6th and 13th. In fact, his average finish on all ovals less than 1.5 miles is only 12.5. Good, but not matching his great pace in 2023.
That leaves Palou vulnerable in the last 8 races. Both races in Iowa (7/8 mile) and the race at Worldwide Technology Raceway (1.25 miles) could be opportunities to pounce on Palou if his title rivals Dixon, Josef Newgarden, Marcus Ericsson and Pato O'Ward can keep their noses clean.
If Palou finishes with his top five streak in tact, meaning a streak of 16 consecutive top five finishes, he will score a minimum of 240 additional championship points. If he keeps up his season average finish of 3.2, he could score roughly 278 additional points.
What do his competitors have to do to catch up? If any do, it would be more impressive than what Palou's done already.
Luckily, I've put the guessing into your hands with this handy interactive calculator.
Simply input your predicted average finish over the final 8 IndyCar races into the corresponding driver's box, and you'll create a resulting final points estimate for the 2023 IndyCar Season. Below is an example, and you'll need to click the button below to access the calculator.
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