Portland Title Scenarios: Two-man race comes to penultimate round favoring Palou

Scroll to the bottom for every possible championship scenario for Sunday's Bitnile Grand Prix of Portland

Alex Palou didn't lock up the title last weekend at Worldwide Technology Raceway, but he did minimize the damages that come from a good-but-not-great short oval performance.

The shock of the day came when Scott Dixon, third in the championship entering the day, left with a surprising fuel milage win. Conserving fuel and cutting out a stop during the final 130 laps, Dixon cruised to a more than 20 second victory over Pato O'Ward and David Malukas.

Dixon moved ahead of Josef Newgarden — the unanimous favorite entering the day which ended prematurely after a crash, putting him more than 108 points back of Palou and eliminated from the championship hunt.

Palou's weakest tracks are behind him, but Dixon is heating up. It's hard to believe, but Palou hasn't won since round nine at Mid-Ohio in July. Dixon meanwhile has back-to-back victories and turned the title fight into a one-on-one Chip Ganassi Racing battle.

Palou has much kinder championship scenarios this weekend. His 74 point lead means he can shed up to 20 points and still win the championship before Laguna Seca. He can't let his guard down though, and Dixon has the knowledge, execution and team to make things interesting if Palou leaves the door open enough.

Let's get ahead of tiebreaker scenarios, which all favor Palou. IndyCar rules break ties by position. If there's a championship points tie at any position, the driver with more wins will win the tiebreaker. If that's tied, criteria moves to second place finishes, then third, and so on.

Dixon winning the final two rounds makes things level with Palou at four victories this season. Both Dixon and Palou have one second place finish this year, so finishing second just once more would win Palou the tiebreaker. If it moves to third place finishes, Palou has three and Dixon has one.

There's no way Dixon can finish first, second and third in the same race, so Palou has every tiebreaker locked up even if Dixon wins the final two rounds. That means Dixon needs to leave Portland no more than 53 points behind Palou.

Even then, just by starting the race at Laguna Seca, Palou will earn at minimum five points. Assuming there are no unforseen circumstances with Palou, Dixon needs to be no more than 48 points back of Palou to fight for the title at Laguna Seca. To do that, Dixon needs to finish 4th or better at Portland, and Palou must finish 7th or worse.

Championship Clinch Guide: Portland

Automatic clinch scenarios
• Palou finishes anywhere from 1st to 6th.
• Palou leaves Portland with at minimum a 49 point advantage.
• Dixon finishes 5th or worse.
Scenarios assume Palou starts the final round at Laguna Seca.

Bonus points available
+ 1 for winning pole position
+ 1 for leading a lap
+ 2 for leading the most laps

How to read scenarios: "+" denotes a bonus points scenario. They are accumulated in the ways listed above. If Palou earns at least three bonus points by leading the most laps, the most bonus points any other driver can earn is 2.

Palou IS champion if he finishes...
1st-6th: Palou is champion
7th-11th: AND Dixon does not win
12th: AND Dixon finishes 2nd+++ or worse
13th: AND Dixon finishes 2nd++ or worse
14th: AND Dixon finishes 2nd+ or worse
15th: AND Dixon finishes 2nd or worse
16th: AND Dixon finishes 3rd++++ or worse
17th: AND Dixon finishes 3rd+++ or worse
18th: AND Dixon finishes 3rd++ or worse
19th: AND Dixon finishes 3rd+ or worse
20th: AND Dixon finishes 3rd or worse
21st: AND Dixon finishes 4th++ or worse
22nd: AND Dixon finishes 4th+ or worse
23rd: AND Dixon finishes 4th or worse
24th: AND Dixon finishes 5th+ or worse
25th-27th: AND Dixon finishes 5th or worse