Can Scott Dixon grab the IndyCar championship? History says his chances are about 50/50.

Can Scott Dixon grab the IndyCar championship? History says his chances are about 50/50.
Scott Dixon celebrates after winning the Big Machine Music City Grand Prix on Aug. 8, 2022, in Nashville, Tennessee. | James Black/Penske Entertainment

Will Power is known for his fiery attitude at the track. This year, he says he's as calm as he's ever been. He's used his cool demeanor to put up consistently great results, and leads the NTT INDYCAR SERIES championship heading into the final three races.

Power's gap to second place Scott Dixon is only six points, though. That lead can evaporate quickly in the world's most competitive high level open wheel series.

Can Power keep the championship lead after IndyCar heads to the Worldwide Technology Raceway this Saturday, and over the last two race weekends? History says the odds are about 50/50.

Since 2008, the championship leader with three races to go won the championship eight of 14 times — 57% of the time. Six times, a driver in second place or further back won the title, including last year when Alex Palou overcame a 10 point gap to defeat Pato O'Ward.

Of those six times a driver mounted a comeback, the biggest gap a driver overcame was in 2013, when Dixon overcame a 49 point gap with three races left to defeat Helio Castroneves for the title.

Scott Dixon has slowly built his way into the championship fight this year. Early results were good but not great, and he left a lot of points on the table at the Indianapolis 500 where a late pit road penalty took him out of contention. If not for the slow start to the season and a dissapointing trip to Indianapolis, Dixon would be leading the championship.

Dixon's two wins came on street courses — Toronto and Nashville — and he is such a well-rounded driver he could easily overcome a six point gap in three races. Power, though, seems to keep pulling off top five finishes when the odds are against him. With only one win this season — the lowest amount on Team Penske — his ability to overcome early contact, spins and other racing incidents to achieve the best day possible put him in the catbird seat as the championship fight reaches its closing stages.

One poor race for Dixon — something that can't be overlooked with a short oval left on the schedule this weekend — and Marcus Ericsson could overtake him for second place, or even first.

In fact, if 49 points is the benchmark there are four drivers that could overcome the deficit. Including Dixon (-6) and Ericsson (-12), Josef Newgarden (-22) and Alex Palou (-33) are still very much in the hunt for the title.

Newgarden has the most wins of anyone this season, and if not for a suspension failure at Iowa's second race he would be closer to the championship lead. Palou has put up fantastic results considering he's being sued by his team owner for a contract dispute that won't be resolved by the end of the season.

This INDYCAR season might be one of the closest in recent memory, and statistically this is the closest the top two in the championship have been since 2014.

After this weekend's race in St. Louis, we should have a clearer picture of who the championship favorite is. WWTR, or Gateway as it used to be known, is pretty much a wildcard race. There's a lot of contact historically, and a good race can be thrown away in the last corner if drivers aren't careful.

Dixon, though, has the experience of winning multiple championships — both as the chaser and as the leader. If he comes out of St. Louis without any issues, he could drive to his seventh championship.