Texas IndyCar Preview: Will Penske dominance repeat?

The much maligned Texas Motor Speedway put on a solid IndyCar race last year, but in the end it was a pretty drab affair with Scott McLaughlin's No. 3 car driving out of frame and...

Oh wait...

Josef Newgarden is coming... he might catch him...

He did!

It felt like McLaughlin, who was coming off of a season-opening victory at St. Petersburg, just had to hold a line and drive away. He led 186 laps and had the best car by far. Unfortunately for McLaughlin, his first mistake all day was on the last lap, allowing his Penske teammate Newgarden to pull alongside in the last two corners and cross the finish line first.

"It hurt," McLaughlin said looking back on the finish, "it hurt big time."

Texas will again host the first oval race of the 2023 IndyCar calendar this Sunday in the PPG 375. It ended up being a great predictor of oval speed in 2022, but may not give all the answers, especially leading into the Indianapolis 500.

Looking back at the 2022 weekend it's hard to believe Team Penske didn't perform better than 13th with Newgarden in the Greatest Spectacle in Racing. Texas was and is the only track outside of Indianapolis with the high speed oval wing configuration.

On the other hand, the top five finishers at Texas last year accounted for all but five race wins last season. If you have speed at Texas, chances are you're well positioned to overcome chaos throughout the rest of the season and emerge as a title favorite.

There's no reason Penske and Ganassi shouldn't come out of the gates quickly this weekend, but this year feels like a more competitive year at the top of the IndyCar field. Andretti Autosport and Arrow McLaren are coming for the throne. Can either pull it off at Texas?

This year: there's a measurable chance, but they'll have to hit the ground running.

Ganassi may have an advantage at the big ovals, especially considering last year's dominance at Indianapolis, but without any ovals in testing so far this season the first practice on Saturday morning will be very insightful.

Despite the underwhelming '500, Penske won all but one of the other ovals in 2022 — and would've had them all if a suspension component hadn't failed on Josef Newgarden in the second race of the Iowa doubleheader, a race he was commanding. McLaren's Pato O'Ward inherited the lead of that race on merit and won, but drove what was clearly the second best car that day.

O'Ward is a favorite to win Sunday if he qualifies well. He won one of two races at Texas in 2021, and the Monterey, Mexico, native has a large contingent of supporters driving to Fort Worth this weekend see him.

And for Andretti, who had it all fall apart despite having the speed to win at St. Petersburg earlier this month, their oval package will make or break any chance at their first championship since Ryan Hunter-Reay in 2012.

Excluding Andretti affiliate Meyer Shank Racing's triumph with Helio Castroneves at the 2021 Indianapolis 500, an Andretti Autosport car hasn't won on an oval since Alexander Rossi won at Pocono Raceway in 2018. It's been a long time since Andretti had a chance to win on an IndyCar oval, and if they've focused their efforts on their road and street course campaign, becoming an oval contender again may be a year or two away.

It's hard to predict a podium without any real sense of improvements or regression on oval tracks in 2023. Through that lens, my gut tells me Team Penske tends to handle these situations best, and they've had the best speed on ovals outside of Indianapolis since the advent of the aeroscreen.

Leading the way? It doesn't matter how many laps he leads, Newgarden knows how to get it done at Texas — even if he waits until the last corner.

Texas podium prediction: 1. Josef Newgarden, 2. Pato O'Ward, 3. Will Power.

Schedule:

Practice 1: Saturday, 9-10 a.m. E.T.

Qualifying: Saturday, 12:15-1:15 p.m. E.T.

Practice 2: Saturday, 1:45-3:30 p.m. E.T.

Race: Sunday, 12:00 p.m. E.T.

All sessions available on Peacock, race available on NBC.