Who's invited to IndyCar's title fight?
IndyCar is getting closer to its conclusion. Off this week, the series goes for four straight weeks — from Toronto, to the Iowa doubleheader, to Indianapolis, then to Nashville.
After that, there’s only three races left to crown the 2022 IndyCar champion.
With the kind of diversity of tracks IndyCar has to close out the season, it’s far too early to tell if Indy 500 winner Marcus Ericsson can hold off the Penske duo of Will Power and Josef Newgarden, or his teammate and last year’s champion Alex Palou.
It does seem as though we can eliminate a few drivers from championship consideration.
IndyCar’s field is talented from top to bottom, but racing is cruel. Little mistakes from drivers and teams, mechanical failures, getting caught up in accidents and just plain old bad luck can take you out of the championship hunt. Sometimes your sponsor can stop cashing checks, and your ride gets thrown into uncertainty as Tatiana Calderon has found out the hard way.
Strangely though, no drivers or teams have been mathematically eliminated from the championship just yet. Even if I acquired the funding, team and talent necessary to compete for an IndyCar championship, and I scored the maximum amount of points left in the championship (54 per race x 8 races = 432 points), I could contend for the title.
Effectively, though, I have a better chance at getting struck by lightning.
Reasonably, I’d say you need a 100 point gap or less to be championship contender at this point. That’s enough of a gap with enough time that a driver could close the gap to first in the championship based on talent alone. It’d be tough, but it wouldn’t be impossible.
That leaves us with:
- Ericsson (321 points)
- Power (301)
- Newgarden (287)
- Palou (286)
- Pato O’Ward (256)
- Scott Dixon (254)
- Scott McLaughlin (252)
- Alexander Rossi (229)
Every other IndyCar driver and team are more than 100 points back of Ericsson, and though any one of them could mount legitimate charges to break into even the top five of the championship, first seems unlikely. Those teams had bad luck early, haven’t found consistent speed and simply cannot make up the gap.
Colton Herta, in 10th with 212 points, could be the outlier due to his impressive speed. Things haven’t been consistent though, and I’d say his 2023 championship challenge looks much more promising (assuming whatever’s going on at Andretti Autosport doesn’t derail everyone’s season).
I think we can separate these eight contenders into three tiers. I’m not quite confident making a championship prediction yet, but I can almost guarantee your 2022 IndyCar champion will come from this selection of eight drivers.
TIER THREE: McLaren 2023 Tier | Alexander Rossi, Pato O’Ward
The Andretti Autosport drama nearly overshadowed McLaughlin’s win at Mid-Ohio on Sunday. Rossi’s repeated entanglements with Romain Grosjean, and Grosjean’s own entanglements with his other teammates, unraveled a season wrought with turmoil behind the wall at Andretti. Nathan Brown’s Indianapolis Star report (linked above) details the feud that spilled over in Ohio.
Rossi, next year joining O’Ward at Arrow McLaren SP, has struggled until recently to get the results he showed in 2019 with Andretti, winning twice and dueling with Simon Pagenaud at the Indianapolis 500.
Rossi himself might not be the issue, though. Excluding wunderkind Colton Herta (what am I saying he’s like one month younger than me), no Andretti driver has won since Rossi at Road America in 2019.
His results improved when his “cartoon anvil” of bad luck went away this season, and he’s the only Andretti driver in the top eight after Colton Herta’s various incidents.
O’Ward and Rossi share the same tier because they are the outlier teams in the top eight. They’ve shown speed despite the rest of their team’s relative struggles and tribulations (Felix Rosenqvist has been one step behind O’Ward all year, but suffered some early woes that put him 11th overall).
O’Ward in particular is a serious championship contender, with one win and pole at Mid-Ohio before a mechanical issue, but both must defeat the Penske and Ganassi powerhouses over the next eight weeks — which is easier said than done.
TIER TWO: The “Rookies” | Scott McLaughlin, Marcus Ericsson
You can’t be sure how a driver will perform under pressure until they’re in the heat of competition. In McLaughlin and Ericsson’s case, both have had breakout years in IndyCar and have likely established themselves as serious competitors every weekend for the foreseeable future.
However, neither have been at the top when the IndyCar Series season is over. Ericsson had a well-documented struggle with a backmarker Formula One team and never really got a chance at a championship until this year (apart from Formula BMW and Japanese Formula Three in the late 2000s/early 2010s). McLaughlin is one of the best Australian V8 Supercar drivers ever, but hasn’t been in an IndyCar championship battle.
This isn’t to say either can’t win the championship, though. Every first time champion has to start somewhere. Just last year, Palou won a title few to none expected him to win when the season started.
McLaughlin’s win in Ohio revitalized a campaign bogged down by a poor month of May, and Ericsson has kept the championship lead he gained by winning the Indy 500. Either could come home with a championship, but they’ve got to close out against some experienced competitors.
TIER ONE.FIVE: Scott Dixon | Scott Dixon
The Iceman can win the championship in a relatively mediocre year.
Dixon was the favorite to win the Indy 500 until a late race pit speed penalty, but that’s the only time he’s been the favorite this year.
Dixon has six IndyCar championships, and as long as he’s in the 9 car he can win one. He also has a tendency to get hot when the season gets closer to the end, and this year could be no different.
That being said, he lives in his own tier today. Competitively, he fits below the top tier this year, the highlight of his year being his Indy 500 pole and one podium at Detroit.
He’s Scott Dixon, though, so he can’t live in the second tier. Once July is over, he could end up on top of the standings if everyone else isn’t careful.
TIER ONE: The Vets | Will Power, Josef Newgarden, Alex Palou
I think the 2022 champion is probably one of these three. None of them are leading the championship, and have pretty much been chasing all year.
Power won at Detroit, and is persistently third or fourth when the checkered flags fly, despite some spins, poor qualifying and other issues. If it weren’t for his run in with Devlin DeFrancesco at Road America and a mediocre Indy 500, he’d be closer to Ericsson for first place.
Newgarden has three wins already, but a dismal month of May compared to what was expected keeps him 34 points back.
Palou got caught out by a poorly timed caution at the Indy 500 which shuffled him out of the lead — a race he could’ve won. Then, he had a mechanical issue at Road America beyond his control.
Ericsson has had only one race plagued by an issue beyond his control, getting off strategy at Long Beach following a caution. When (not if) Ericsson’s next bad race happens, one of these drivers can capitalize and take control of the championship. They all have the speed, they just need the luck — and a little more time.
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